Majority Back ICC Trial for Duterte, Yet Allies Gain in Senate Race

Even as three in five Filipinos support former president Rodrigo Duterte facing trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity, recent polls show his allies surging ahead in the May 12 midterm elections.

In an interview, Prof. Aries Arugay, chair of the University of the Philippines’ Department of Political Science, noted that many voters appear to separate their views—demanding accountability for Duterte while still backing his closest allies in the Senate race.

“The public may not link the two,” Arugay said. “They may want The Hague trial but vote based on name recall, loyalty, or patronage. Our elections aren’t always issue-driven.”

He emphasized the enduring role of regional and ethnolinguistic ties in shaping votes. In 2022, Duterte’s influence and geographic identity were key factors, and these remain strong today.

Duterte-Backed Candidates Rising

Recent surveys show significant gains for Duterte-aligned figures:

Sen. Bong Go, known for the Malasakit Centers, has overtaken Erwin Tulfo for the top spot.

Sen. Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, a fierce Duterte defender, jumped into the Top 5 amid heavy media coverage of his support for the former president.

Even actor Philip Salvador, with no prior political experience, now ranks within the 11-17 range of viable contenders.

Arugay acknowledged that Duterte’s political “magic” continues to shape the race. “This is the fourth straight election where his influence reshapes the playing field,” he said.

Shifting Fortunes: Marcos Slips, Opposition Stalls

Meanwhile, Sen. Imee Marcos has slid in the rankings, barely clinging to the Top 16. Arugay attributed this to her attempt to appeal to both Duterte and Marcos loyalists—a strategy that backfired in a polarized climate.

Opposition-linked candidates, like Bam Aquino, have also hit a ceiling, with their numbers reflecting stagnant support among former VP Leni Robredo’s base. “To break into the Magic 12, they must win over soft Marcos supporters,” Arugay noted.

Celebrity Power vs. Legislative Experience

The race also highlights the Senate’s long-running trend of celebrity dominance. Figures like Tulfo, Salvador, and Willie Revillame—all from entertainment backgrounds—are outperforming seasoned lawmakers.

“This risks weakening the Senate’s institutional quality,” Arugay warned. “When popularity outweighs policy expertise, it affects lawmaking and checks on executive power.”

Key Endorsements & a Tight Race

With VP Sara Duterte reportedly backing Rep. Camille Villar (daughter of outgoing Sen. Cynthia Villar), analysts are watching whether this can push her into the winning circle. Unlike Marcos, Villar has stayed firmly pro-Duterte—a potential advantage.

As election day nears, the Senate contest grows fiercer. Arugay cautioned that the difference between winners and losers could come down to just thousands of votes.

“We might see a new Magic 12 every week until the election. That’s how volatile this is,” he said.